By Ayo Akinfe
(1) As the weeks go by, the number of barrels of crude oil Nigeria cannot sell is growing by the day. We are not alone in this as every other Opec nation is facing a similar problem. Supply and demand fundamentals are a reality, so with this glut, petroleum prices are certain to remain depressed for the foreseeable future
(2) What makes Nigeria particularly vulnerable is the fact that we are a mini-economy. When 95% of government revenue comes from crude oil sales, we have no choice other then to look for alternative sources of income if we do not want to perish as a people
(3) By my calculations, Nigeria needs to find something like $30bn from alternative sources during the course of 2020 and 2021 and for me, aviation has got to be one of the cash cows at the top of the list. Why? Because it is a readily available resource, there is a ready-made market available and we actually have the expertise to deliver on it
(4) In 2019, Ethiopian Airlines generated revenue of about $4bn. A well-run Nigerian national carrier with several different facets targeted at the diverse sectors of the market could easily double that. It simply has to be a goal we set ourselves this year
(5) For staters, analysts believe something like 60% of the world’s airlines will go bust this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. This means a lot of them are available on the cheap, so Nigeria should be looking to purchase at least two going concerns and merge them into one aviation giant with a global reach
(6) One area where we can develop a unique niche in which we are the global market leader is the private jet sector. There are about 12 jets in the presidential fleet and most of our general overseers own at least one Gulfstream or Bombardier private jet. I think the presidency should donate its planes to this new carrier and the pastorprueners should be patriotic and do likewise. The donating of their aircrafts to the venture should purchase them a stake in the airline. For instance, if David Oyedepo hands over his five private jets, that should grant him a 10% stake in this new company
(7) If we start off with a fleet of say 20 donated private jets and buy an existing couple of airlines with a combined capacity of say 100 planes, we are good to go. That recent $3.4bn loan we got from the IMF should be enough to fund this project and get the venture going. With the dire straits these airlines are in, they will happily hand over their assets for anything they can get
(8) Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, in the centre of the continent and the seventh most populated country on earth. We simply have to turn the nation into an aviation hub where everybody flies through when they want to travel to the African continent. We have the potential to generate the passenger volume to make this a gold mine
(9) We are all aware of how our people ruined Nigeria Airways, so as a safeguard, we should insist that any deal involves the professional managers of any purchased airline running the operation for the next 10 years at least, that the Nigerian government has no more than a 25% stake in the venture and that private sector operators like Allen Onyeama are Nigeria’s representatives on the board of directors
(10) A well run Nigerian airline could easily replace oil as our national cash cow. Figures do not lie so if you look at the revenue generated by major airlines prior to this pandemic, you will realise that our obsession with oil is nothing but a mental illness of sorts. See – Delta Airlines ($44.9bn), American Airlines ($44.5bn), Lufthansa ($42.3bn), Air France ($31.3bn). Our fixation with crude is just psychological, kind of like the fear of the unknown.
