Ayo Akinfe
(1) We have a 2021 budget of $33bn but are planning to borrow at least $14bn to fund it
(2) We are poised to spend $7.8bn importing used cars and motorcycles in 2021
(3) We have no plans whatsoever to join the rest of the human race in looking for a remedy to this virus. Has it occurred to us that if Nigeria developed a vaccine it would earn us at least five times more than crude oil does
(4) With global industrial output down, we are not going to sell anywhere near the 2m barrels of crude oil our budget is predicated on. In fact we will be lucky to sell 1m barrels a day throughout 2021
(5) With the end of the Trump era, the US is going to adopt a more collaborative and collegiate approach to global trading. This is likely to lead to a deal with China, which will put an end to the reckless borrowing we are currently seeing. I can see Chinese loans drying up soon
(6) President Joe Biden is going to return to the Paris Climate Change Accord. This will mean more global green policies, which will lead to less petroleum usage, less loans for polluting projects and the reduced production of petrol cars
(7) Certain developing countries have been using this crisis to dramatically boost production in numerous sectors. They are filling the vacuum left by China’s suspend of industrial activities. As we speak, Brazil is generating over $136bn from the export of agricultural goods, Mexico is earning $10.2bn from the export of textile products and Vietnam generates $65bn from mobile phone exports
(8) India, however, is taking the most radical steps with this pandemic. They are building new industrial cities to accommodate hundreds of Western companies relocating from China. Most of these multinationals have come to realise that it is unwise to plant all their eggs in one basket
(9) With debt servicing soon to account for about one third of our budget, Nigeria will be too heavily geared to take out more loans. Simply put, this means we are going to have to start producing most of what we consume, be it automobiles, mobile phones, private jets, designer clothing, pharmaceuticals, household goods, etc
(10) I can see the day coming when our state governors will go to Abuja and the finance minister will tell them there is no federal revenue to share. Those governors with foresight need to start preparing for this eventuality
