Food inflation remained uneven across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in December 2025, with Yobe State recording the highest year-on-year increase. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Yobe, described as the pride of the Sahel, posted a food inflation rate of 15.2 per cent year-on-year.

Ogun State followed closely with a food inflation rate of 14.1 per cent, while the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, recorded 13.2 per cent, placing both among the states with the fastest-rising food prices over the period under review.

In contrast, Akwa Ibom State recorded the slowest year-on-year increase in food inflation at 4.34 per cent. Sokoto followed with 4.62 per cent, while Plateau State posted a comparatively low rate of 6.19 per cent.

On a month-on-month basis, the Consumer Price Index report showed that food inflation was highest in Imo State at 3.19 per cent in December 2025. Nasarawa State followed closely with 3.16 per cent, while Yobe recorded a month-on-month increase of 1.18 per cent.

However, some states recorded a decline in food inflation on a month-on-month basis during the same period. Plateau State led with a decrease of -2.76 per cent, followed by Rivers State at -2.50 per cent and Zamfara State at -1.93 per cent.

Despite the easing observed in some regions, food inflation continued to exert pressure on household incomes nationwide. The NBS noted that the year-on-year national average food inflation rate stood at 10.84 per cent in December 2025, reflecting a technical decline.

On a month-on-month basis, the national food inflation rate dropped to -0.36 per cent in December 2025. This represented a reduction of 1.49 percentage points compared to the 1.13 per cent recorded in November 2025.

According to NBS, the decline in month-on-month food inflation was driven by falling average prices of several key food items. These include tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper, and fresh onions, among others.

The NBS explained that its Consumer Price Index tracks 242 essential food items that are regularly consumed by most households across the country. As a result, food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 6.06 per cent to overall inflation in December, making it the largest contributor.

Restaurant and accommodation services followed with a contribution of 1.96 per cent, while transport accounted for 1.62 per cent, placing them as the second and third largest contributors to Nigeria’s inflation rate during the month.

At 0.05 percent, recreation, sport, and culture contributed the least to inflation in December. Insurance and financial services gave 0.07 percent, while alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and drugs contributed 0.05 percent.

In December 2025, the headline inflation rate was 15.15 percent, according to NBS. A 12-month index reference period was used to obtain this number, with 2024 being equivalent to a base index of 100.

The agency also reported that the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 19.65 percentage points lower than that in December 2024. It clarified that the adoption of a revised base year had an impact on the notable slowdown.

Month-over-month, headline inflation decreased from 1.22 percent in November to 0.54 percent in December. This suggested that the economy's short-term price pressures were lessening.

CardinalStone analysts responded to the data by characterising the pattern as positive for Nigeria's inflation prospects. The company said in a notice that as important inflationary pressure points lessen, the rate of price rises is anticipated to continue reducing.

CardinalStone projects that headline inflation will average 14.02 percent in 2026 and end the year at 12.22 percent. According to the business, this track suggests that Nigeria's long-term inflation average of roughly 14% will return, with inflation falling below that level from May to December.

The researchers also predicted that exchange rate stability would improve, pointing out that the naira is anticipated to increase to between N1,350 and N1,450 in 2026. Strong external reserves, a healthy current account surplus, increased foreign exchange liquidity, and ongoing market openness all support this view.

There will be space for monetary policy rate reduction of 300 to 400 basis points in 2026, probably following the March inflation statistics, since inflation is expected to fall below the Central Bank of Nigeria's 16 percent objective. In order to promote credit growth, it also anticipates a gradual easing of other tightening measures, such as the cash reserve ratio, starting in the second half of the year, according to the research firm.