Private sector growth hit 13-month high in December 2025
Nigeria’s private sector wrapped up 2025 on a strong note, as heightened festive season demand propelled business activity to a 13-month peak, based on the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index.
The headline PMI reached 53.5 in December, a slight decline from November's 53.6, yet it remained well above the 50.0 threshold that differentiates expansion from contraction.
The survey indicated that the December figure reflected a monthly enhancement in business conditions, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of growth, which was generally consistent with the overall performance observed during 2025.
“The expansion in December was primarily fueled by increased customer demand, resulting in a significant rise in new orders. Sales growth continued for the fourteenth month in a row, only slightly tapering from the pace noted in November,” the report mentioned.
In response to the rising workload, companies significantly boosted their output, with growth broadly aligning with the figures recorded in the preceding month.
All four major sectors included in the survey experienced increased output during this period, with the agriculture sector leading the charge in expansion.
The survey highlighted that improved demand conditions also led businesses to enhance their purchasing activity and increase inventory levels.
Employment figures went up in December again, although the rate of job creation was minimal, representing the slowest increase recorded since June 2025.
The report additionally indicated a notable rise in business confidence at the year’s end, hitting a six-month peak.
Nearly 59 percent of respondents expressed a positive outlook on future activity, bolstered by intentions to invest in expanding operations, establishing new branches, and boosting export capabilities.
Reflecting on the report, Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, noted that the December PMI reading had moderated for the second month in succession yet remained solidly within growth territory and was generally in line with the average performance for 2025.
He explained that the ongoing expansion was indicative of stronger customer demand, which facilitated growth in new orders and motivated companies to enhance their purchasing activities and accumulate inventory levels.
Oni pointed out that although input prices surged significantly in December compared to a nearly five-year low recorded in November, inflation remained below the 2025 average.
He attributed the surge partly to increased spending during the festive season and projected a monthly inflation rate of 1.44 percent for December, suggesting a year-on-year headline inflation rate of 32.34 percent.
Looking ahead, Stanbic IBTC anticipates that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.8 percent year-on-year in 2025 and will further accelerate to 4.1 percent in 2026.
This growth perspective is expected to be supported by enhanced manufacturing and service activities, infrastructure advancements, improved trade conditions, and the forward-linkage impacts of the Dangote refinery.
“Lower interest rates, stabilization of the exchange rate, and broader sectoral contributions are expected to further facilitate private consumption, investment, and overall economic growth in 2026,” he stated.
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