Nigeria’s oil output drops to 1.486mbpd, below OPEC quota
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has indicated that Nigeria's oil production, excluding condensate, saw a decrease of 0.7 percent, dropping to 1.486 million barrels per day in November 2025, down from 1.496 million bpd in October 2025.
OPEC does not include condensate in its statistics, with Nigeria producing about 196,028 bpd of this resource, as per data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
In its December 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC reported this information, noting that the November production figures were derived from data collected from secondary sources, indicating that Nigeria did not meet OPEC's 1.5 million bpd target.
Upon analyzing data from direct sources, OPEC revealed that Nigeria's production in November 2025 was 1.436 million bpd, which represents an increase from the 1.401 million bpd recorded in October 2025.
The current production figure of 1.486 million bpd reflects a slight increase compared to the 1.417 million bpd recorded during the same period in 2024.
In response to the report, Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, shared his views in an interview with Vanguard on Thursday: “It is not surprising that Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) for November 2025 stands at 1.486 mbpd—marginally lower than October’s 1.496 mbpd and still below the 1.5 mbpd target.”
Professor Iledare then identified ongoing issues that have led to this underperformance. “The causes are well-known: insecurity, a mature basin lacking significant new discoveries, and the inability to offer new hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance issues remain significant, and policy ambiguity is continuing to dampen investor confidence.”
He emphasized the need for decisive action and clear leadership within the sector. “The selective enforcement of the PIA must cease. Nigeria needs a clearly identified leader with the authority to direct the sector. Relying on too many indirect leaders will not be effective. I cannot remember the last occasion when Nigeria fulfilled its OPEC quota.”
On another note, the NUPRC has publicly declared its own ambitious production target for the near future, aiming for more than 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in the coming years.
Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, the Commission Chief Executive of NUPRC, noted the substantial progress made by the Commission since its inception in 2021, particularly highlighting that Nigeria's active rig count, which was 16 in 2021, has now risen to 40 under the Commission's management.
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