Nigeria’s aviation growth slumps in Q3 amid costly air tickets
Nigeria's aviation industry saw a significant decline in growth during the third quarter of 2025, with an expansion of only 2.88 percent as passengers continued to cope with high airfares.
This statistic was disclosed in the most recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
According to the NBS Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2025, the year-on-year nominal growth in air transport fell sharply from 57.21 percent in the first quarter and 30.60 percent in the second quarter to 2.88 percent.
Nonetheless, the sector's output still increased in value terms. The GDP for air transport at current basic prices reached N80.98 billion in Q3 2025, up from N78.71 billion during the same period in 2024.
In the first quarter, output surged from N67.28 billion in 2024 to N105.77 billion in 2025, while the second quarter saw an increase from N28.59 billion to N37.35 billion over the same timeframe.
A quarter-on-quarter review of 2025 highlights the volatility of the aviation sector. Sector output experienced a significant contraction of roughly 64.7 percent between the first and second quarters, decreasing from N105.77 billion to N37.35 billion.
This was succeeded by a sharp recovery in the third quarter, where output more than doubled, rising approximately 116.8 percent to N80.98 billion.
However, since growth is assessed against the comparable quarters of 2024, the year-on-year nominal growth rate continued to decrease, dropping from 57.21 percent in Q1 to 30.60 percent in Q2 and further down to 2.88 percent in Q3.
The figures further indicate that the contribution of air transport to the wider economy remains minor and slightly less than last year's level.
The sector contributed 0.07 percent to the total GDP in Q3 2025, a decrease from 0.08 percent in Q3 2024. Its share was higher at 0.11 percent in Q1 2025 before falling to 0.04 percent in Q2.
In contrast, the overall economy sustained nominal growth. GDP at current basic prices rose from N96.16 trillion in Q3 2024 to N113.59 trillion in Q3 2025.
On a quarterly basis, total output increased from N79.51 trillion to N94.05 trillion between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, and from N84.48 trillion to N100.73 trillion between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025.
Real growth statistics for aviation support the notion of a sector emerging from deep contraction into slight expansion, albeit with decreased momentum.
Air transport experienced negative real GDP growth throughout 2024, registering –9.51 percent in Q1, –11.18 percent in Q2, and –9.90 percent in Q3. In 2025, performance improved, nearing zero growth at –0.81 percent in Q1 before turning positive at 6.34 percent in Q2 and moderating to 1.60 percent in Q3.
The NBS data indicate an aviation industry that began 2025 with exceptionally strong year-on-year nominal growth but experienced a sharp decline to just 2.88 percent by the third quarter, even as output levels and its contribution to GDP remained higher than those of 2024.
The slowdown coincides with persistently high airfares experienced by travelers, raising concerns about the sector's ability to maintain growth amid escalating costs and softening demand.
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