By Ayo Akinfe
Buhari presents 2020 budget of $28.4bn based on oil price of $57 and output of 2.18m barrels a day – See more at: https://bit.ly/2MnNl8q
[1] These figures simply do not add up. For starters, we have an annual infrastructural deficit of $100bn and our total 2020 budget is only $28.4bn
[2] Secondly, the budget is based on us producing 2.18m barrels of oil a day when our Opec quota is 1.68m barrels
[3] The budget is based on oil selling for $57 a barrel. What happens if they collapse to $30 a barrel?
[4] We are spending about 11% of the budget servicing debts. A total of N2.45trn is going on debt servicing, which I find totally unacceptable
[5] Defence spending is more than the combination of what we are spending ion health and education
[6] Our education budget of N48bn is totally unacceptable when we are spending N35bn on internal affairs
[7] Where is the capital for infrastructural development going to come?
[8] This budget is based on a GDP growth rate of 2.93%. That will only happen if oil prices are high
[9] It is estimated that in 2020, the inflation rate is will remain slightly above single digits. If we get 15% inflation (as is now happening with the border closure), these figures are out of sync
[10] For me, the only positive is the fact that foreign reserves increased to $42.5bn in August from $23bn in 2016.
However you look at it, this is an austerity budget!
